Microgrid operational decisions based on CFaR with wind power and pool prices uncertainties

Abstract

The paper investigates the case of a microgrid participating in a pool-type market to enable purchasing part of its energy demand from the grid. The market exposure subjects the μgrid to various risks including price, demand volume, non-dispatchable distributed generation output and system reliability which require extensive risk based decision making processes for optimal operational strategies. By using the characteristics of a particular market and weather data, the spot price is modelled using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean-reverting stochastic differential equation while the wind turbine generation employed Weibull distributed wind profile. Monte-Carlo simulations with different proportions of customers classified as premier, normal and interruptible loads with heterogeneous tariffs are performed to evaluate the ratio of expected profit to expected cost of energy procurement, Cash Flow at Risk and Expected Shortfall. ©2009 IEEE.