Evolving from a hydrocarbon-based to a sustainable economy: Starting with a case study for Iran

Abstract

Environmental and socioeconomic challenges facing many hydrocarbon-rich nations could help them evolve from hydrocarbon-based (black) into renewables-based (green) economies. In this paper, we present a case study for application of this Black Into Green (BIG) method for Iran. We show that with international cooperation Iran could indefinitely meet its energy and freshwater needs by leveraging large-scale renewable energy harvesting systems integrated with seawater pumped storage hydropower, reverse osmosis desalination, and enhanced distribution systems. This BIG transition could be facilitated by allocating a significant portion of Iran's potential hydrocarbon-based income to acquire, develop, and deploy renewable energy technology that utilizes Iran's immense solar and wind energy potential. Our analysis shows that developing just 1% of identified sites would provide over 30 TWh of annual renewable electricity generation and storage, and 221 million m3/day of renewably-powered desalination capacity to meet the freshwater needs of over 85% of its population. In addition to providing renewable energy design and manufacturing technology, the international community could also work with Iran to help evolve its nuclear power program toward small modular reactors for baseload power generation. Such an arrangement would contribute to regional and global security, and greatly reduce the Middle East's carbon emissions of which Iran is the largest emitter. Results from this holistic approach could then serve as a model for the world economy to work with other resource-rich nations to reduce their environmental impact while modernizing their economies and helping them achieve the socioeconomic goals outlined in the UN's Brundtland report. © 2021 The Author(s)